The Dispatch Japan blog posted several articles that give good analysis of the state of U.S.-Japan relations related to the realignment of bases in Okinawa. “NSC Shakeup Could Impact US-Japan Relations” provides insight into the appointment of Tom Donilon to the position of National Security Advisor and its implications for U.S.-Japan relations. The article describes the split within the administration between those who favor a hard line on the Futenma-Henoko military base issue (Gates, Clinton, Donilon) and those who favor a more flexible line to protect the U.S.-Japan security alliance (Campbell, Biden). Donilon’s appointment indicates that the Pentagon is dicating international policy to the Obama administration and sends a signal that tensions with Japan will worsen:
The much-anticipated announcement by President Obama October 8 that Tom Donilon will be his new national security advisor might not be the greatest of news for US-Japan relations.
Donilon has been a prominent supporter of the blinkered view that “tough love” succeeded with Japan over the past year, moving a dangerously-naïve Yukio Hatoyama out of power, and opening the door for more pragmatic leaders of the DPJ to steer US-Japan relations back on track.
With the strong backing of Defense Secretary Bob Gates, Donilon’s perspective has until recently prevented a more flexible approach to the intractable Futenma problem from emerging within the Obama administration, sending the US-Japan alliance into one of its most contentious periods in many years.
The White House has placed a virtual moratorium on high-level celebrations of the 50th anniversary of the US-Japan Security Treaty, partly out of anger, and partly out of a determination to not give any sign of pulling back from insistence that the Henoko project to replace the US Marine Air Station Futenma move forward.
Meanwhile “Campbell downplays Futenma. Is a solution in sight?” underscores the rift between the two camps. Here’s an excerpt that speaks directly to the situation with Futenma-Henoko:
Futenma issue lives
The Obama administration has not abandoned the project to replace Futenma; Campbell said nothing to indicate otherwise.
And, while the recent skirmish between Japan and China over the disputed Senkaku islands south of Okinawa has brought the US and Japan closer together, it did not alter in any significant way the dynamics on Okinawa working almost completely against the plan for a Futenma replacement facility.
For now, the Administration appears to have ‘shelved’ the issue until early next year, with the hope that some ‘breathing space’ will allow Washington and Tokyo to focus on some really pressing alliance issues, including challenges posed by China, and then revisit Futenma in a hoped-for more amiable context.
President Obama will visit Japan in November, as scheduled, and the two sides will work hard to keep the Futenma issue from rearing its divisive head. It remains to be seen if the White House will drop its virtual moratorium on 50th anniversary celebrations of the US-Japan Security Treaty, which was signed in 1960, though sentiments seem to be moving in that direction.
In any case, most officials in Tokyo are happy with the breathing space, but have not changed their assessment that opposition on Okinawa will prove too strong to allow the project to proceed.
Thus, Futenma could still cause considerable tension, which explains the lingering, myopic White House aversion to 50th anniversary celebrations.
The November 28 race for governor of Okinawa will have a big impact on how events unfold. Land usage and other regulations give the governor authority to block the project. The incumbent, Hirokazu Nakaima, harbors sympathy for construction of a replacement facility in the Henoko area of Okinawa, but has been pressured by public opinion to endorse placement of the facility outside of Okinawa.
His challenger in the race, Yoichi Iha, is a fierce opponent of the Henoko plan.
American officials are hoping Nakaima wins, and that the time-worn tactics of using economic aid to buy off opposition on Okinawa will once again work. Officials in Tokyo are not optimistic those tactics will work, but are willing to try.
An Iha win is likely to provoke disagreement among US officials, and potentially between Washington and Tokyo. Some US officials would favor pressuring Kan to try to push through the Diet a “special measures” law that would allow the central government to overrule the Okinawan governor. Others argue that approach would only make matters worse.
Regardless, Kan is very unlikely to take such action, if only because his government would collapse if he were to try to enforce the “special measure” by deploying police to confront the demonstrators who would inevitably gather in large numbers around the construction site.
Instead, Kan would more likely argue with Washington that he needs more time, and more time, and still more time to win over Okinawan opponents. The new project would never be built, with Kan’s government all the while arguing that it was doing its best.
There is some hope on both sides that if Washington and Tokyo “fail together” to bring about construction of a Futenma replacement facility, alliance managers will be able to limit any lingering clamor. Said one high-ranking US official: “If it comes down to it, we will not allow a fight over Futenma to ruin the alliance.” But there could be another round or two of high-stakes stalemate before that stage is reached.
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